Summary: Stayed positive in 2020. Uzbekistan GDP is expected to have grown by 1.6% in 2020 (preliminary estimate). This is because of the impact of the Covid lockdown on domestic consumption and the fall in external demand. A bounce of 4-5% is expected in 2020.
This is the first in a series of introductions to Smart City programs which have been launched, or which are planned, across the CIS-Eurasia region. Other reports in the series will look separately at programs in Belarus, Ukraine, and
Russia, and also across the Central Asia region. These reports aim only to provide an overview of existing smart city and technology projects and of current and future State plans for developing “e-” and technology projects in each of the countries across the region.
Growth. Headline growth improved in 2018 because of the higher oil price and better output in some sectors, such as agriculture, transport and in consumption. Growth is set to rise further this year because of higher social spending and the commissioning of the Shah-Deniz 2 gas project.
Hydrocarbon is the common denominator. The countries of the Caspian Corridor share one major common factor – they are all vulnerable to hydrocarbons.
Hydrocarbon based economy. Azerbaijan’s economy is very dependent on hydrocarbon exports. In 2014 this made up 44% of GDP, 70% of budget revenues and 95% of exports. The oil price drop will cut this year’s GDP growth to 2%, from almost 6% in 2013, and lead to an estimated budget deficit of 5% of GDP. The budget needs US$90 p/bbl to break even based on Finance Ministry estimates.