Consumer Markets: Central Asia January 2020

This is the first report in a three-part review covering the consumer sectors in the five Central Asian states. Part 2 will review the Caucuses countries and part three will focus on Ukraine and Belarus. These reports will provide an overview of the trends in the major consumer sectors and identify the major and emerging themes in each country. Macro-Advisory provides more detailed strategic and due-diligence analysis covering all of the identified themes.

Country Snapshot Kyrgyzstan August 2019

This year growth is expected to pick up and the data from 1H19 suggests a better performance than the 4% expected by the Economy Ministry. GDP grew by 5.6% in 1Q19 and by 6.4% in 2Q19. It is, therefore, very likely we will upgrade our forecast for this year when we see the 3Q19 results. The decline in 2020 is more because of the base-effect from this year and the fact that little new investment is expected in either extractive industries or other sectors of the economy.

Eurasia Kyrgyz Republic Snapshot

Growth. Growth dipped in 2018 because of the over 30% drop in output from the Kumtor Gold Mine during the first half of the year. The two major contributors to GDP, and thus the swing factors for growth, are the output from Kumtor and remittances from Russia.