Eurasia Belarus Snapshot

GDP. Growth expanded to 3.5% in 2018 but is expected to slow (moderately) this year, and in the coming years, partly because of the base-effect, but also due to tighter monetary conditions and the loss of some Russian energy subsidies.

Eurasia Georgia Snapshot

GDP. The economy is expected to post growth of 5% for the last year and should stay close to that level for several years ahead. The key drivers of growth are the expansion in such sectors as tourism and transport services plus the rise in worker remittances. The main vulnerability is the cost of imported energy and contagion from a volatile Turkish lira.

Eurasia Azerbaijan Snapshot

Growth. Headline growth improved in 2018 because of the higher oil price and better output in some sectors, such as agriculture, transport and in consumption. Growth is set to rise further this year because of higher social spending and the commissioning of the Shah-Deniz 2 gas project.

Eurasia Armenia Snapshot

GDP. Growth in 2018 is expected at 5.6%. This is lower than the 7.5% recorded for 2017, but that was boosted with one-offs such as a new mine start-up. The main drivers of growth last year were mining sector exports (copper and gold), the US$1.5 bln received in remittances (two-thirds from Russia) and strong growth in the technology sector.

Uzbekistan Update July 2018

Waiting for a debut Eurobond. Uzbekistan will issue a debut Eurobond very quickly, once it receives an international credit rating. The process of getting a rating is ongoing and ministers hope it will be completed by the autumn and a debt issue done by the year-end.

Uzbekistan Update September 2017

Off the blocks quickly. Uzbekistan is playing catch-up with the rest of the CIS and Eurasia after 25 years of isolation. President Mirziyoyev and his team have moved surprisingly quickly with some key changes that should yield a positive knee-jerk reaction from investors. But the “to-do” list remains long and daunting.

Mongolia Initiation March 2016

From boom to risk of recession. Four years ago Mongolia’s economy grew at 17.3%, the world’s fastest. This year’s growth is expected to be little more than 1.0%. The reason for the collapse is the sharp drop in FDI from US$4.7 bln in 2011 to only US$230 mln last year.

Country Profile Kazakhstan March 2015

Early election in 2Q15. President Nursultan Nazarbayev has called an early presidential election for 26 April. Although not yet confirmed, it would be a huge surprise if Nazarbayev does not contest it (he won the 2011 election with a 95.5% share of the vote), citing the need for national unity and looking for a popular mandate to continue his economic and geo‐political agenda.

Country Profile Georgia 2015

Declining growth. Georgia’s economy is suffering from the fallout of Russia’s recession and the ruble devaluation along with most other economies in the CIS and Eurasia region. GDP is expected to slow to growth of between 2 and 2.5% this year, from almost 5% in 2014.