Summary: Given the impact of Covid-19 for the country, the economy and for investors in Russia, we are initiating a regular series of updates covering the crisis. We will issue regular updates with news of government actions and analysis of what these mean for the economy and investors.
Second part review. This is the second part of our review of the expected impact from the ending of the OPEC+ agreement. The key conclusion is that while Moscow is in a much better financial position today than is Saudi Arabia, or Russia’s position in 2014 (see our previous report Oil War: Who blinks first?), Russia stands to lose a lot more than Saudi Arabia over a full year in terms of export revenue as a result of the promised surge in both Saudi and Russia oil.
Demographics threat cannot be ignored. Russia’s natural population declined by 300,000 last year and that number is expected to grow each year in this decade. The problem is the big fall in the number of females of child-bearing age. This is a legacy of the 1990s migration and economic crisis. This is the reason why President Putin spent most of his recent Federal Assembly Address talking about the need for remedial actions and why US$47 billion has been allocated in the National Projects program.
The National Projects (NP) are at the core of the Russian government’s efforts to pull the economy out of the current slump, to create sustainable diversified long-term growth and to improve lifestyle conditions in Russia. It is the key element of President Putin’s effort to establish his legacy.
We are now initiating coverage of the National Projects strategy. We will provide regular detailed updates about the progress in each of the major project sectors, focusing especially on the opportunities for foreign investors and on the mechanisms for them to take part.