Economy looks a bit better in February … The GDP leading indicator
was up 1.5%, a rebound from 0.7% in January. The manufacturing PMI
index was 52.8 in March, a surprise rebound from previous levels and
firmly in expansionary territory.
… leading to government optimism. First Deputy Prime Minister
Siluanov said that the economy performed much better than had been
expected in Q1. The Economy Ministry confirmed that if this positive
trend continues he will raise forecasts for this year and next in August.
Mueller exonerates Trump but not Russia. The report that Trump had
not criminally colluded with Russia in the 2016 election might help
Trump politically, but it is likely to renew the focus on Russia as a proxy
for Trump in US politics. Both the DETER and the DASKA acts are being
re-circulated in Congress. Secretary Pompeo informed Moscow that
CBW sanctions would be imposed in the near future. We think these
will not be highly damaging, but it depends on US politics.