Russia Macro Monthly October 2016

GDP perks up in August. August GDP rose 0.3% month-on-month, a reversal of July’s fall of 0.1%. GDP year-to-date is down 0.9% relative to the same period last year.

Russia Macro Monthly September 2016

GDP ticks down in July. July’s 0.1% MoM decline in GDP somewhat tempered the optimism which followed June’s 0.1% YoY growth. GDP for the first seven months was down 0.9% YoY. Industrial output was down 0.3% year‐on‐year, after rising 1.7% year‐on‐year in June.

Russia Macro Monthly August 2016

GDP finally positive, albeit just. June GDP grew 0.1% YoY, the first positive number for some time. Industrial output rose 1.7% YoY. Retail and construction continue to drag, but less than in 2015.

Russia Macro Monthly July 2016

May numbers reflect macro improvement … In May, the contraction in annualized GDP eased further to 0.8%, an improvement on the 1.0% fall in 5M16. Industrial production continued to grow, adding 0.7%, with most of that coming from natural resources.

Russia Macro Monthly June 2016

April numbers show improvement. In April, the YoY decline in GDP was “only” 1.2% vs a decline of 1.8% in 1Q16. Industrial production grew 0.5% while the contraction in retail sales was less than 5% YoY.

Russia Macro Monthly May 2016

Quarterly numbers less bright. While the better than expected January-February data allowed for a rise in optimism, the 1Q data reminds that caution is still required.

Russia Macro Monthly April 2016

Slightly better trend in the economy YTD. Data for the first two months of this year confirm that while the worst is over the economy is still in decline. This is consistent with our view that the recession will persist through 2Q16 but growth should resume in the autumn.

Russia Macro Monthly March 2016

Macro numbers reflect base effects. The macroeconomic numbers for January look better than December’s figures, but it is worth noting that the December data reflect the high base effect of December 2014. GDP is down ‘only’ 2.5%, against a 3.5% contraction in December, and inflation is below 10% versus 12.9% in December. Retail sales dropped 7.3% against a 15.4% contraction in December.

Russia Macro Monthly February 2016

New year, same markets. The new year started with a variation on the themes of 2015: weak oil causing a weak ruble and sanctions uncertainty. This combination will likely continue to dominate sentiment in, and towards, Russia through 1H16 if not the entire year. 1Q is expected to show the worst results for the economy in 2016.

Russia Macro Monthly December 2015

Politics clouds forecasts. Geopolitics continues to make economic forecasting difficult. It is expected that EU leaders will fully renew sanctions for either three or six months at next week’s summit. Investors hope to hear that the EU may ‘reward’ Moscow if progress continues in eastern Ukraine over the next six months. Our base case forecasts assume no sanctions change until August. The very dangerous events in Syria add additional uncertainty when looking at 2016‐18 forecasts.