Summary:

Nothing new. The strong statement and warning of further sanctions from the G7 leaders was predictable and adds nothing new to our understanding of the issues and risks. Consensus is for a full sanctions rollover. The EU is expected to fully extend the sanctions list, with the next review on 31 December so as to sync the review with the key date for the Minsk II agreement. Unless Minsk II is moderated, an end is hard to predict. The critical outstanding point in the Minsk II agreement is that Kiev should regain control of its national border by 31 December. Given the current circumstances that seems an impossible condition, and so long as sanctions relief is linked to that requirement, then it is hard to see when sanctions may be reviewed.