Hydrocarbon based economy. Azerbaijan’s economy is very dependent on hydrocarbon exports. In 2014 this made up 44% of GDP, 70% of budget revenues and 95% of exports. The oil price drop will cut this year’s GDP growth to 2%, from almost 6% in 2013, and lead to an estimated budget deficit of 5% of GDP. The budget needs US$90 p/bbl to break even based on Finance Ministry estimates.
No support for politics at any cost. Opinion polls are starting to show declining public support for the Kremlin’s campaign to control eastern Ukraine. Only 19% of people now believe that the region should be a part of Russia compared to almost 50% last spring. Concern over the cost of absorbing the region and the economic consequences of the crisis now outweigh nationalist ambitions.