Summary:
A flurry of US‐Russian diplomatic activity suggests a breakthrough is likely at the upcoming Minsk discussions between Ukraine and its two separatist regions. A meeting between Victoria Nuland and Vladislav Surkov is particularly indicative of progress, as they should be able to deliver actions from their respective clients. Other US government statements suggest that if there is progress on returning the separatist regions to Ukraine then Russia can expect relaxation of some sanctions.