DEMO2

Summary: Stayed positive in 2020. Uzbekistan GDP is expected to have grown by 1.6% in 2020 (preliminary estimate). This is because of the impact of the Covid lockdown on domestic consumption and the fall in external demand. A bounce of 4-5% is expected in 2020.

DEMO

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Uzbekistan: Energizing Sustainable Growth

Stayed positive in 2020. Uzbekistan GDP is expected to have grown by 1.6% in 2020 (preliminary estimate). This is because of the impact of the Covid lockdown on domestic consumption and the fall in external demand. A bounce of 4-5% is expected in 2020.

Beltway 360 – Biden and Russia: Will Everyone Change So That Everything Stays the Same?

Continuity across presidential administrations is a hallmark of American relations with the outside world. Changes do occur, but more in response to changes abroad than in thinking along the Potomac, which remains remarkably consistent (even obtuse) despite alterations of political control
of the White House. Even Donald Trump was much more radical in rhetoric than in policy. Some of his most striking innovations — leaving the Paris climate accord and the Iran nuclear deal — will be reversed by Biden, restoring long-term continuity. One of the most consistent major components
of US foreign engagement in this period is Russia policy, which enjoys a basic unity not only between political parties but also between executive and legislative branches of government. Thus, continuation of an adversarial posture toward Moscow is almost certain from the incoming Biden
Administration, at least at the outset.

Sanctions, Ruble and NS2: Not So Much Political Wind as a Hurricane Warning

New sanctions are now inevitable. Russia almost certainly faces new, and possibly damaging, sanctions from the US in early 2Q21. This is because of the allegation that Russia is behind the SolarWinds hacking. The existence of a “smoking-gun” is hardly relevant as it is almost entirely accepted that Russia’s SVR agency is behind the hacking and, as such, it must have been approved at the very top of the Kremlin Administration.

Some Dark Clouds Blot the New Year Sunshine

Some reasons for optimism into Christmas. Since the US Presidential election and the rollout of the anti-Covid vaccine in November, the ruble has rallied 10% against the US dollar and the RTS Index has jumped 33%. Russia is cited as the second most attractive investment story (cheap, stable, and long-term growth) coming into 2021.

Beltway 360 – The Washington Revolving Door Revolves

President-elect Biden is moving fairly slowly to flesh out his upcoming administration. His choices for Secretary of State and National Security Advisor are uncontroversial and indicate that Biden favors familiar and collegial figures rather than a so-called “team of rivals.” As a long-time chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee himself, Biden will be his own foreign minister and will constitute a team of surrogates.